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Prediction for CME (2024-10-24T03:48:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2024-10-24T03:48Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/34152/-1
CME Note: Partial halo CME visible to the SE in SOHO LASCO C2/C3 and STEREO A COR2. The source is an X3.3 flare starting at 2024-10-24T03:30Z from AR 3869 (approx. S17E68). Brightening and post eruptive arcades are observed in SDO AIA 131/171/193/335, EUV wave seen in SDO AIA 193, and opening field lines are best seen in SDO AIA 171/193. The eruption is also seen from STEREO A EUV 195/304. Arrival signature is characterized by an amplification of magnetic field components with Btotal increasing from 15nt to 22nt. A subsequent increase in solar wind speed was observed from 385 km/s to 511 km/s at 16:09Z, with an increase in temperature observed as well. The signature was preceded by a prior enhancement in solar wind parameters, most notably magnetic field components, associated with IPS: 2024-10-26T11:35Z.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T15:34Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-10-26T12:00Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (NOAA/SWPC)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
SWPC ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.9e
Resolution: medium
Ambient settings: a8b1
Ejecta settings: d4t1x1
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: mrbqs

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:
Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2024 Oct 25 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity ...

.24 hr Summary...

Due to the location of the source region, the bulk of the X3.3 CME is
expected to be to the S and E of Earth. However, some flanking
influence is likely according to modelling efforts. Analysis of several
model outputs suggests a possible glancing blow at Earth early to mid
day on 26 Apr.

Lead Time: 37.72 hour(s)
Difference: 3.57 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Melissa Kane (M2M) on 2024-10-25T01:51Z

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